Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 73862.107684 78065.106617 82271.616990 86794.443373 91516.714107 96298.642182 101503.901108
2025-04-06 66660.540289 73055.247664 79639.459941 86915.783296 94721.812254 102834.900563 111894.794770
2025-04-13 61374.284418 69235.742734 77514.255407 86861.892732 97102.938559 107961.228188 120323.926110
2025-04-20 58131.376470 67173.108169 76873.217557 88020.786663 100443.917423 113828.950008 129306.052342
2025-04-27 55512.999462 65513.199058 76417.035550 89140.605239 103529.410449 119246.033573 137658.914507
2025-05-04 52969.152616 63724.395512 75625.700664 89705.790319 105839.277152 123677.877050 144820.837892
2025-05-11 50452.201474 61796.351590 74522.805590 89772.147637 107457.802289 127231.917244 150917.711891
2025-05-18 48329.959951 60196.528888 73679.927844 90027.531231 109198.503194 130852.889256 157041.196451
2025-05-25 46349.690807 58655.555784 72807.957987 90157.874954 110716.891146 134160.783551 162767.109526
2025-06-01 45106.431578 57921.101691 72822.293894 91275.303788 113348.260665 138735.017463 169960.936506
2025-06-08 43304.267719 56428.099545 71858.556092 91160.053860 114464.672943 141495.830630 175007.406056
2025-06-15 42399.828278 55984.571385 72116.600164 92478.042227 117267.969243 146238.770383 182406.181944
2025-06-22 41278.659588 55242.243972 71992.402121 93327.141882 119520.630361 150363.179320 189136.434276
2025-06-29 39863.958884 54080.138220 71307.944648 93452.474350 120869.122800 153395.307042 194569.125479
2025-07-06 38450.886638 52866.247562 70510.911528 93394.565661 121958.355014 156093.030270 199592.869503
2025-07-13 37736.491181 52513.562720 70764.129070 94623.345652 124622.189549 160704.372367 206959.153561
2025-07-20 37049.718540 52166.140591 70999.194662 95810.649623 127226.000688 165247.247768 214264.907200
2025-07-27 36139.721322 51492.632903 70789.361932 96409.843538 129078.126468 168861.867876 220442.467817
2025-08-03 35047.274406 50540.955807 70188.716225 96480.190076 130241.265655 171612.031221 225553.783571
2025-08-10 34097.651669 49747.237636 69763.798511 96750.928545 131640.090060 174647.526814 231025.385860
2025-08-17 33140.159606 48911.562266 69255.958125 96889.106024 132851.190193 177439.465025 236197.250164
2025-08-24 32657.632195 48702.453662 69557.904802 98073.604368 135404.407044 181929.434271 243525.631200
2025-08-31 31674.734429 47777.545197 68883.658053 97951.444374 136250.477330 184250.277802 248119.896695